Jamaika, GroKo, NoGroKo – das Karrussell der (Nicht-)Regierungsoptionen hat sich seit der Bundestagswahl im letzten September ordentlich gedreht. Obwohl es nun doch so aussieht, als ob sich die „GroKo“ am Ende durchsetzen wird – es sei denn die SPD-Mitglieder machen dem noch einen Strich durch die Rechnung.
Ein Konstrukt, was bereits von Anfang an, aber vor allem auch nach dem Platzen der Jamaika-Verhandlungen immer wieder die Runde machte, ist die sogenannte Unions-geführte Minderheitsregierung.
Die Idee hierzu lautet, dass CDU/CSU allein oder mit einem „kleinen“ Partner (FDP oder Grüne) eine Regierung bilden, die aus eigener Kraft keine Mehrheit im Parlament besitzt. Um dann effektiv regieren zu können, müsste man sich immer wieder „wechselnde Mehrheiten“, also die Unterstützung von anderen Parteien (oder einzelnen Abgeordneten), suchen.
Zumindest für die Führungsetage der Union scheint diese Option pures Gift darzustellen, weil man in Deutschland gerade jetzt eine „stabile Regierung“ brauche, um auch in Europa als „verlässlicher Partner“ agieren zu können. Andere, wie z.B. der CDU nahe „Wirtschaftsrat“, sehen in der Minderheitsregierung den Ausweg aus der GroKo-Dauerschleife und eine Chance auf mehr christdemokratische, liberale Politik.
Abstrakte Diskussion in Stammtischmanier
Seitdem die Idee aufkam werden nun fleißig die theoretischen Positionen für und gegen die Minderheitsregierung ausgetauscht.
Die Befürworter argumentieren, dass so endlich das Parlament wieder aufgewertet würde und es allgemein wieder mehr um inhaltliche Debatten ginge, statt um reines Verwalten und Postengeschachere. Überhaupt gebe es auch in vielen anderen Ländern (den Niederlanden, Spanien oder in Skandinavien) bereits zahlreiche Erfolgsgeschichten mit Minderheitsregierungen.
Die andere Seite hält dagegen, dass es – anders als in Skandinavien – in Deutschland überhaupt keine Tradition mit Minderheitsregierungen gebe (mit dem gleichen Argument könnte man übrigens jegliche Neuerung abräumen – aber dies nur am Rande). Außerdem, so sagte z.B. die stellvertretende CDU-Vorsitzende Julia Klöckner vor eben jenem Wirtschaftsrat, wäre man für jede kleine Entscheidung auf das Wohl anderer Parteien angewiesen und müsste quasi „vier Jahre lang sondieren“ und ständigen Kuhhandel betreiben.
Das spannende an dieser Diskussion ist: Sie bleibt vollständig im Reich des Theoretischen.
Eine Evaluierung der Minderheitsregierung macht nur anhand konkreter Themen Sinn
Mit theoretischen Argumenten und Stammtischweisheiten kommt man eben nicht weiter. Beide Seiten könnten Recht haben – im abstrakten Gedankenexperiment gibt es bei diesem Thema kein eindeutiges Richtig oder Falsch.
Die Machbarkeit einer Minderheitsregierung müsste vielmehr ganz konkret ausgelotet werden:
- Die Union müsste sich überlegen, ob sie allein oder mit Grünen oder mit der FDP regieren würde.
- Anschließend definiert man wichtige Themen und Projekte, die man gern umsetzen würde – quasi eine Art „Mini-Sondierung mit sich selbst“.
- Mit diesen Themen geht man dann zu den potenziellen Oppositionsparteien und schaut, was diese unterstützen könnten und ggf. im Gegenzug fordern.
- Wenn man sich auf genügend wichtige Themen einigen kann und die „Gegenforderungen“ akzeptabel sind, schließt man, dass eine Minderheitsregierung eine mögliche Option wäre. Wenn nicht, dann ist das Thema für den Moment erledigt.
In Deutschland gibt es genug konstruktive Parteien und Parlamentarier
Anders als z.B. in den USA, wo sich Republikaner und Demokraten gegenseitig auch bis zum Government Shutdown blockieren, sind die etablierten deutschen Parteien überwiegend konstruktiv und vor allem bei den großen Themen häufig gar nicht so weit auseinander. Gerade die kleinen Oppositionsparteien würden sich möglicherweise sogar freuen, wenn sie konkrete Herzensprojekte umsetzen könnten, anstatt vier Jahre lang nur alles schlecht reden zu müssen.
Insofern ist die Minderheitsregierung durchaus eine Option, die eine – ergebnisoffene – praktische Prüfung durch die Union verdient gehabt hätte. Gerade im Hinblick auf die Koalitionsverhandlungen mit der SPD hätte man so auch noch ein strategisches Instrument in der Hinterhand gehabt, um sich weniger vom Damoklesschwert des SPD-Mitgliederentscheids erpressbar zu machen.
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